Week 4 Picks

Last week I finally got over the .500 mark, so instead of looking for a bounce back week I finally have something to build off of. Picks should be getting easier now that we know who really is horrible, like the whole NFC West, so we’ll see what happens in Week 4. Here are the picks; home team is in CAPS and the spread (taken from ESPN’s pigskin pick’em) is in parenthesis.

            Bills (-3.5) over BENGALS – I think the Bills offense is legitimate, but I’m not sure if their defense is up to par with the hype (although it’s hard to be). The good thing is that the Buffalo defense doesn’t have to be outstanding to win in Cincy.

            BEARS (-6.5) over Panthers – Cam Newton is coming back down to earth.

            TITANS (+1.5) over BROWNS – The Titans have a top three defense in terms of yardage allowed, and the Browns have been much less than stellar offensively. I know the Titans lost Kenny Britt for the season, but Chris Johnson has to catch fire somewhere at some point.

            Lions (+3.5) over COWBOYS – Ndamukong Suh is going to break Tony Romo’s entire ribcage and irreparably damage his manhood. Dallas’ center might have been distracted by the Redskins calling out the snap count last week, but I think having Suh lined up across from you and ready to rip you to shreds is much more distracting. Oh, and not to mention Calvin Johnson is the best receiver in the game and the ‘Boys don’t have anyone that can cover him.

            Vikings (-1.5) over CHIEFS – If Adrian Peterson does not get any meaningful amount of carries in the second half to protect Minnesota’s lead (they’ll be up at halftime, trust me), then Leslie Frasier is the dumbest coach in all of football. The Vikings are an underachieving team that should be doing better. The Chiefs are just flat out irrelevant.

            Redskins (+0.5) over Rams – The Redskins should’ve won on the road last week in the battle of field goals in Dallas. No matter what your opinion is on Dallas, you have to admit they’re five times the team that St Louis is.

            Saints (-7.5) over JAGUARS – Drew Brees is going to have another huge week against the Jags. Blaine Gabbert will still be trying to figure things out.

            EAGLES (-6.5) over 49ERS – I think the Eagles can win this game even if Michael Vick doesn’t play the whole game. The only key for Philly will be stopping Frank Gore; Alex Smith will just stop himself.

            TEXANS (-3.5) over Steelers – I think this is the game where the Texans finally prove that they are a real contender by beating a legitimate team.

            Falcons (+4.5) over SEAHAWKS – Atlanta needs to win this game. It’s one thing to lose to a division rival; it’s a whole other story to lose to anybody in the NFC West.

               Giants (-1.5) over CARDINALS – See: Last thirteen words of Falcons over Seahawks.

            Broncos (+13.5) over PACKERS – The Packers will win this game, but I have learned to pick the dog when there’s such a huge spread. Ah crap, now I’m not so sure. On one hand, the spread is so big that it’s almost forcing me to pick Denver. On the other hand, the Packers winning by anything less than 14 points will probably be a disappointment.

            Patriots (-4.5) over RAIDERS – Tom Brady will not lose two games in a row this season. With their running game, the Raiders have the ability to keep the ball away from the Patriots’ offense, but run defense isn’t what has been killing New England. In the end, Jason Campbell will be too inadequate to lead Oakland to the win.

            Dolphins (+8.5) over CHARGERS – I will not pick the Chargers in any week before Week 8 when the line is above 2.5 points. I just won’t. They’ll never come through for me. If San Diego wins by 9 or more, I will hate them forever and always.

            RAVENS (-3.5) over Jets – The Jets’ vaunted run defense just got demolished by Darren McFadden last week and they have been underwhelming all season. Ray Rice should have a huge day (and he better since he’s on my fantasy team).

            Colts (+9.5) over BUCCANEERS – The beginning of the Curtis Painter era will begin with a loss, but not with a double-digit loss. The Colts, although they are horrible, look to be a little feisty and handed out some hard hits against the Steelers last week. I think any Indianapolis win might be the worst thing for them, because if you’re a good franchise you might never get a shot at drafting a quarterback like Andrew Luck ever again.