Week 3 Picks

My quest for a finish above 8-8 continues into Week 3. I have been growing more and more angry towards the spread as the weeks go on, but only because an 8-8 finish is a knock on my pride. Picking games straight up last season I would usually end up with a record of 12-4 or better, but I digress… Here are my Week 3 picks. Home team in CAPS, and the spread is in parenthesis.

Patriots over BILLS (+8.5) – The only reason that I won’t get this one right is if the Bills get a backdoor cover at the end of the game with a cheap touchdown. The Patriots are going to win and they will win by 9+ points if they can prevent any garbage time points. Buffalo was a cute story for the first two weeks but they’re not good enough.

BENGALS (-2.5) over 49ers – I originally thought the Bengals would be the worst team in the NFL, now they might be a team that beats bad teams (like San Fran) and covers the spread against good teams. They won’t make the playoffs by any means, but they’re at least OK.

Dolphins over BROWNS (-2.5) – Here is where we’ll find out if the “road field advantage” still works for the Fins. If not, I’m not picking them again for the rest of the season.

TITANS (-6.5) over Broncos – Denver is riddled with injuries and can’t stop the run. Chris Johnson has had a horrible start to the season, but I think this week is perfect for a breakout game.

Lions over VIKINGS (+3.5) – I’m going to keep riding the Lions until they let me down. I won’t even be nervous if they go into halftime with a 24-0 deficit with the way the Vikings have been playing. Oh, and if you haven’t noticed by now, McNabb has lost it… well, he lost it a while ago.

SAINTS (-3.5) over Texans – I don’t want to put my trust in the Texans in their first true test of the season.

EAGLES (-7.5) over Giants – No matter how many injuries they fake, the Giants won’t slow down this Philly offense.

PANTHERS (-3.5) over Jaguars – I don’t think Cam Newton can throw for over 400 yards in a third consecutive game, but I do think that the Jaguars are really, really bad.

CHARGERS (-14.5) over Chiefs – This line could be -20.5 and I would still pick San Diego. One thing you don’t have to worry about with Kansas City is the backdoor cover, because they can’t score points at all.

RAIDERS (+3.5) over Jets – Not only do I think the Raiders will cover, I think they’ll win! This is my upset pick of the week. Oakland is still upset over Mark Sanchez putting mustard on a hot dog and eating it when he was on the sideline during the Jets blowout win in 2009. It seems stupid (it is) but if it gives them extra motivation I’m getting behind them!

Ravens over RAMS (+3.5) – The Ravens need to atone for their loss last week in Tennessee, and not just with a close win.

BUCCANNEERS (-1.5) over Falcons – I don’t think the Falcons are as good as they were hyped up to be, and I think they should be 0-2 right now. Josh Freeman plays well at home and LeGarrette Blount is turning into a powerful running back. Matt Ryan makes a lot more dumb mistakes on the road than he does at home, and it’ll be too hot for Michael Turner and his thighs to plod up and down the field for too long (I’m just looking for more reasons to be confident in this pick).

Packers over BEARS (+3.5) – The Packers should kill the Bears in this one. They haven’t played a complete game yet and I think this is the week where they can put it all together. Don’t kick the ball to Hester, please.

SEAHAWKS (+3.5) over Cardinals – Seattle is obviously horrible, but the Cardinals secretly (not so secretly to me) suck. I’ll take the points with the Seahawks in their first home game.

Steelers over COLTS (+10.5) – There is really no way that this line could be big enough for me to pick Indy. HOLY CRAP THEY ARE HORRIBLE!

Redskins over COWBOYS (-6.5) – The ‘Boys are battling a bunch of injuries to crucial players, and the ‘Skins couldn’t be more confident in themselves. I think Brian Orakpo breaks one or more of Tony Romo’s ribs before the game is done.

            Recap: I’ve got the Patriots (road favorite), Bengals (home favorite), Titans (home favorite), Lions (road favorite), Saints (home favorite), Eagles (home favorite), Panthers (home favorite), Chargers (home favorite), Raiders (home dog), Ravens (road favorite), Buccaneers (home favorite), Packers (road favorite), Seahawks (home dog), Steelers (road favorite), and Redskins (road dog) to win or cover this week. I’m confident, which probably means I’ll go 6-10. Check back on Tuesday for the recap and look for the “Packers Lounge” in the middle of the week!